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Monthly brief — August 2026

Five supply chains moved this month.

When a country restricts an export or a refinery goes idle, it shows up in customs declarations months before anyone writes about it. We track 15 mineral and chemical inputs and report the flows that actually changed.

Coverage Korea customs, six trading partners · United States and EU in progress
Trade flows
Korea Customs Service — ref. 2026-06
Price benchmark
World Bank Pink Sheet — ref. 2026-07
News signal
GDELT, worldwide — updated 2026-08-27
01 Nickel Sulphate

Battery materials · Export · HS 283324

Nickel Sulphate: OECD accounts for 20.1% of demand.

  • China 99.0 → 87.2% -11.8pp
  • OECD 16.4 → 20.1% +3.7pp
  • APEC 22.1 → 19.8% -2.3pp
  • NATO 15.7 → 19.8% +4.1pp
  • USMCA (NAFTA) 15.8 → 19.7% +3.9pp
  • 캐나다 15.7 → 19.6% +3.9pp
  • Japan 0.1 → 11.8% +11.7pp
  • PACIFIC RIM COUNTRIES 6.3 → 0.1% -6.2pp
  • China 5.0 → 0.0% -5pp

Previous quarter

99%
16.4%
22.1%
15.7%
15.8%
15.7%
6.3%
5%

Latest quarter

87.2%
20.1%
19.8%
19.8%
19.7%
19.6%
11.8%

Effective partners: 5.1 · PACIFIC RIM COUNTRIES, 중국 exited

Export volume
-99.2%
Unit cost vs market index
+6213pp
Movement index
0.163
Price advantage
02 Urea

Industrial chemicals · Import · HS 310210

Urea: Vietnam accounts for 79.3% of supply.

  • Vietnam 20.7 → 79.3% +58.6pp
  • APEC 21.0 → 31.9% +10.9pp
  • RUSSIA 16.4 → 28.2% +11.8pp
  • China 74.0 → 16.2% -57.8pp
  • EGYPT 0.4 → 5.8% +5.4pp
  • NIGERIA 5.7 → 5.1%
  • OECD 5.9 → 4.8% -1.1pp
  • NATO 5.9 → 4.2% -1.7pp
  • ALGERIA 4.5 → 3.9%
  • USMCA (NAFTA) 3.6 → 3.6%
  • 캐나다 3.6 → 3.6%
  • Japan 4.1 → 3.3%
  • OMAN 6.8 → 3.1% -3.7pp
  • QATAR 14.1 → 2.6% -11.5pp

Previous quarter

20.7%
21%
16.4%
74%
5.7%
5.9%
5.9%
4.5%
3.6%
3.6%
4.1%
6.8%
14.1%

Latest quarter

79.3%
31.9%
28.2%
16.2%
5.8%
5.1%
4.8%
4.2%
3.9%
3.6%
3.6%
3.3%
3.1%

Effective partners: 1.5

In the news United States China
Import volume
●●●
Unit cost vs market index
●●●
Movement index
●●●
Figures and 24-month history Open with Pro
Single-source dependency
03 Rare Earth

Strategic minerals · Import · HS 280530

Rare Earth: China accounts for 90.7% of supply.

  • China 51.0 → 90.7% +39.7pp
  • APEC 21.9 → 32.3% +10.4pp
  • PACIFIC RIM COUNTRIES 13.1 → 32.1% +19pp
  • China 2.3 → 31.9% +29.6pp
  • Vietnam 48.0 → 8.3% -39.7pp
  • OECD 19.9 → 1.1% -18.8pp
  • NATO 10.6 → 1.0% -9.6pp
  • Korea 9.3 → 0.2% -9.1pp
  • USMCA (NAFTA) 8.0 → 0.0% -8pp
  • 캐나다 8.0 → 0.0% -8pp

Previous quarter

51%
21.9%
13.1%
48%
19.9%
10.6%
9.3%
8%
8%

Latest quarter

90.7%
32.3%
32.1%
31.9%
8.3%

Effective partners: 1.2

In the news China United States Japan
Import volume
●●●
Unit cost vs market index
●●●
Movement index
●●●
Figures and 24-month history Open with Pro
Single-source dependency
04 Tungstate APT

Strategic minerals · Export · HS 284180

Tungstate APT: Vietnam accounts for 99.6% of demand.

  • Vietnam 79.8 → 99.6% +19.8pp
  • APEC 24.4 → 24.8%
  • PACIFIC RIM COUNTRIES 24.0 → 24.8%
  • OECD 23.1 → 18.6% -4.5pp
  • Japan 22.7 → 18.0% -4.7pp
  • ASEAN 1.2 → 6.4% +5.2pp
  • 싱가포르 1.2 → 6.4% +5.2pp
  • China 20.1 → 0.0% -20.1pp

Previous quarter

79.8%
24.4%
24%
23.1%
22.7%
20.1%

Latest quarter

99.6%
24.8%
24.8%
18.6%
18%
6.4%
6.4%

Effective partners: 1 · China exited

In the news China Germany United States
Export volume
●●●
Unit cost vs market index
●●●
Movement index
●●●
Figures and 24-month history Open with Pro
Single-buyer exposure
05 Herbicide

Specialty chemicals · Export · HS 380893

Herbicide: Australia accounts for 66.7% of demand.

  • Australia 5.2 → 66.7% +61.5pp
  • Japan 23.2 → 26.4% +3.2pp
  • OECD 18.1 → 15.8% -2.3pp
  • APEC 17.5 → 15.3% -2.2pp
  • USMCA (NAFTA) 16.8 → 13.8% -3pp
  • NATO 16.6 → 13.8% -2.8pp
  • 캐나다 15.9 → 13.0% -2.9pp
  • TWENTY LATIN AMERICAN REPUBLICS 3.9 → 7.8% +3.9pp
  • LAFTA 3.7 → 7.7% +4pp
  • Vietnam 1.7 → 6.4% +4.7pp
  • 브라질 1.8 → 5.9% +4.1pp
  • United States 68.9 → 0.0% -68.9pp

Previous quarter

5.2%
23.2%
18.1%
17.5%
16.8%
16.6%
15.9%
3.9%
3.7%
68.9%

Latest quarter

66.7%
26.4%
15.8%
15.3%
13.8%
13.8%
13%
7.8%
7.7%
6.4%
5.9%

Effective partners: 1.9 · Vietnam entered · United States exited

Export volume
●●●
Unit cost vs market index
●●●
Movement index
●●●
Figures and 24-month history Open with Pro
In line with market

How to read this

Method

What moved

We compare the latest three months of trade against the three before it and rank inputs by how much the country mix changed. Small shifts do not make the brief.

You or the market

Unit costs are measured against the matching World Bank index, in percentage points. Rising with the market is normal. Rising while the market sits still is a finding.

What we will not do

We do not estimate prices. Every figure traces to a customs declaration or a published index. Where the data is thin, we say so instead of filling the gap.

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