Monthly brief — August 2026
When a country restricts an export or a refinery goes idle, it shows up in customs declarations months before anyone writes about it. We track 15 mineral and chemical inputs and report the flows that actually changed.
Customs data records the last country of shipment, not the mine or plant of origin. Refining and transshipment hubs can appear as top origins.
Specialty chemicals · HS 282520 · 202605 / 202606
Strategic minerals · HS 280530 · 202605 / 202606
Strategic minerals · HS 850511 · 202605 / 202606
Specialty chemicals · HS 252921 · 202605 / 202606
Korea Industrial chemicals · Import · HS 310210
Japan 4.1% · Other 1.2%
Japan 3.3% · Other 1.2%
Effective partners: 1.5
United States Specialty chemicals · Import · HS 252921
Other 2.1%
Pakistan 2.2%
Effective partners: 2.9 · Thailand entered · Pakistan, Mongolia exited
2 independent customs systems observe these flows. Where their maps differ, a route exists that is not universally used.
Industrial chemicals · Export · HS 390110
Polyethylene: 5 live destination markets observed, but 5 of them appear on only one side.
Korea 2026-06
China 75.3%
United States 2026-05
Mexico 16.8%
Destination markets observed this quarter
The two systems share no route above the reporting threshold.
Observed at 5% or more of a quarter. A route on only one side is evidence it exists, not that the other side should be using it.
+16.6 United States spreads across 16.6 more effective markets.
Wider and cheaper -32.9% Korea pays 32.9% more per kilogram than United States.
Battery materials · Import · HS 250410
Natural Graphite: 5 live sourcing routes observed, but 4 of them appear on only one side.
Korea 2026-06
China 95.6%
United States 2026-05
Indonesia 34.2%
Sourcing routes observed this quarter
Observed at 5% or more of a quarter. A route on only one side is evidence it exists, not that the other side should be using it.
United States spreads across 3.4 more effective sources.
Security premium United States pays 61.5% more per kilogram than Korea.
Customs data records the last country of shipment, not the mine or plant of origin. A route seen in one system and not the other is evidence that the route exists, not a judgement of either buyer. Unit costs are declared values within one HS6 line, so grade and packaging differences sit inside any gap.
We compare the latest three months of trade against the three before it and rank inputs by how much the country mix changed. Small shifts do not make the brief.
Unit costs are measured against the matching World Bank index, in percentage points. Rising with the market is normal. Rising while the market sits still is a finding.
Customs records the last country of shipment, not the mine or plant of origin. Refining and transshipment hubs can appear as top origins, and we label them that way rather than calling them producers.
We do not estimate prices. Every figure traces to a customs declaration or a published index. Where the data is thin, we say so instead of filling the gap.
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